MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary
Stocks finished the way they started Monday. With European markets on break for holiday, much of the focus on Wall Street early in the day was on last week's disappointing jobs report. Although most financial markets were closed in the US for Good Friday, the Labor Department released its March jobs report and the headline number came in short of economist estimates. The US economy added just 120,000 jobs last month, according to the data. Economists were expecting to see an increase of more than 200,000. The unemployment rate was 8.2 percent and down from 8.3 percent from February. Hourly earnings rose .2 percent and .1 percent mot than expected. Stock market averages fell on the poor headline number when trading resumed Monday, but now earnings come into focus, as Alcoa unofficially kicks off the reporting season with a release after the closing Monday. However, the floodgate on first quarter earnings doesn't open for two more weeks. Instead, it seems that the jobs data and pre-earnings jitters drove the action Monday and, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average had pared its losses in afternoon action, it fell again in the final hour. The Dow lost 130 points on the day. The NASDAQ gave up 33.4 points.

Bullish Trends
Options on Intel (INTC) were actively traded today. Shares lost 31 cents to $27.76 and were among 28 Dow stocks to post losses. Only Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and McDonald's (MCD) ticked higher within the Dow Monday. Meanwhile, options volume in Intel included 86,000 calls and 43,000 puts, a ratio of two-to-one. A bullish July 26 – 29 risk-reversal was initiated on the stock and highlighted in the midday XPOUND. In this trade, the investor sold downside July 26 puts to buy upside July 29 calls. The largest options trades in Intel surfaced later, however, after 20,000 Jul 31 calls traded on the stock for 27 cents and 15,000 for 27 cents. The 35,000 contracts traded on the International Securities Exchange and data indicate the position was bought-to-open. If so, it's a bullish play and seems to express the view that Intel will be trading north of $31 (+11.7%) through the July expiration. Shares of the world's largest chipmaker have gained 14.5 percent so far in 2012.

Bullish trading was also seen in Synta Pharmaceuticals (SNTA), Cisco (CSCO), and AOL.

Bearish Trends
Sara Lee (SLE) slips 34 cents to $21.17 and options volume on the snack food company hit 10X the daily average, with 17,000 calls and 8,825 puts traded on the stock today. The top trades were part of a combination or "risk-reversal" after one strategist apparently sold 3557 May 21 calls on SLE at 72 cents to buy 3557 May 18 puts for a dime. The risk-reversal traded another 3557X at a 63-cent credit and appears to be opening activity. If so, the activity seems to reflect concerns about a possible drop in the stock price. A shareholder might have initiated the trade as a short-term hedge or "collar" on the stock. If so, the position would have a similar dynamic as writing an in-the-money covered call, but the downside puts, for a dime, offer some protection if the stock makes a dramatic move lower through mid-May.

Bearish trading was also seen in Supervalu (SVU), Hercules Offshore (HERO), and AIG.

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages were lower throughout most of the session, but the losses were pared in the final hour of trading Tuesday. Weakness in Europe's equity market set the table for cautious trading on Wall Street after France's CAC 40 index gave up 1.6 percent and Germany's DAX dipped 1.1 percent. In the US, the only economic stat of the day was a report on Factory Orders, which was released at 9:00 Central Time and showed orders increasing 1.3 percent in February. The number was in-line with expectations and seemed to have little market impact. Instead, market averages were at session lows through midday and then trading was volatile Tuesday afternoon when minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed a more hawkish stance from some Fed members. Gold, bonds, and stocks all came under pressure, while the dollar moved sharply higher on the news. However, while gold lost more than $37 and crude gave back $1.13, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just 64 points on the day and finished up 69 points from session lows. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gave up 6.1 points.

Bullish Trends

Travelers (TRV) shares shed a nickel to $59.28 and were among 25 losers within the Dow Jones Industrial Average Tuesday. Meanwhile, options volume on the insurance company hit 6.5X the daily average. 6,400 contracts traded on the stock and call volume trounced put activity, as 6,150 call options traded in Travelers today. The flow was focused on April 60 calls, which are 1.2 percent out-of-the-money and expiring in 16 days. Most of the activity surfaced midday when blocks of April 60 calls on TRV were trading at the ask prices between 60 and 70 cents per contract across multiple exchanges. Meanwhile, implied volatility rose 9 percent to 19, as it appears that call buyers were dominating the action in Travelers today. There were not headlines and share volume was light at 2.8 million. The bullish trading might be in anticipation of earnings. The company is due to report on April 19, which is Thursday before the expiration.

Bullish trading was also seen in Ford Motor (F), Saks (SKS), and New York Times (NYT).

Bearish Trends

Kroger (KR) shares came under pressure and investors were shopping for puts on the grocery chain today. There were no headlines to explain the weakness, but KR lost 66 cents to $23.73 on robust volume of 8.8 million shares. Typical volume is about 5.5 million. Meanwhile, options volume was 3.5X the daily average after 4,100 puts and 745 calls traded on Kroger today. The flow was heavily concentrated in the April contracts. April 24 puts were the most actives. 3,330 contracts changed hands. 97 percent traded at the ask and levels of implied volatility rose 7 percent to 19. It's not clear what was driving the bearish activity, but for whatever reason, some investors were apparently buying downside puts on Kroger and bracing for additional weakness in the share price. The company last reported earnings on March 1.

Bearish trading was also seen in Fushi Copperweld (FSIN), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN), and Magnum Hunter (MHR).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Trading was cautious early, but market averages staged a late-day rally to finish mixed Thursday. A day of losses across Asia and Europe's equity markets set the stage for weakness on Wall Street after Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave up 1.3 percent and Germany's DAX paced losses across Europe with a 1.8 percent drop. The domestic economic news didn't help much after data showed filings for jobless benefits falling by 5,000 to multi-year lows of 359K last week. However, economists were expecting to see a greater decline to 350K. Separate data on GDP was up an annual rate of 3 percent in the fourth quarter, which was in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, crude oil lost another $2.14 to $103.27 per barrel, but gold erased early losses and added $3.6 to $1661.50 an ounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also staged a late-day rally and added 20 points on the day. The NASDAQ lost 9.6 points.

Bullish Trends

Activity in the coal sector is heating up late-Thursday. Market Vectors Coal Fund (KOL) hit a morning low of $31.22, but then rallied late in the day to finish up 21 cents to $31.97. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Pioneer Coal (PCX), and Arch Coal (ACI) saw impressive late day spikes, as did Peabody Energy (BTU). BTU shares gained 79 cents to $29.62 and finished up more than 5 percent off session lows on heavy volume of 12 million shares. Options action picked up as well. 17,000 calls and 10,000 puts traded on Peabody today. It's not clear what drove the late-day turnaround, but the group had been battered in recent months. BTU is down nearly 60 percent from the highs seen a year ago. End-of-quarter short-covering by hedge fund managers might have helped fuel the rally in the coal names Thursday.

Bullish trading was also seen in Tibco Software (TIBX), Rare Element (REE), and On Semiconductor (ONNN).

Bearish Trends

Options action picked up in JDS Uniphase (JDSU) Thursday. Shares of the Milpitas, CA telecomm equipment maker lost 2 cents to $14.57 on relatively light volume of 4.2 million. Typical share volume in JDSU is about 6 million. Meanwhile, 7,650 puts and 1,365 calls traded on the stock, which is about double the normal put volume in the name. The top trade was a 3,515-contract block of June 13 puts for 71 cents per contract, which was a buyer, according to data from one of the exchanges. At the end of the day, more than 5,500 June 13 puts traded on JDSU, as some investors appear to be anticipating a move to $13 or less through mid-June. Shares are up nearly 40 percent year-to-date and some investors are possibly buying the contact, which is 10.8 percent out-of-the-money, to hedge recent gains in the shares.

Bearish trading was also seen in Pulte Group (PHM), Ford (F), and Atmel (ATML).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stocks moved broadly lower on disappointing economic news Wednesday. A report released before market hours showed Durable Goods increasing by only 2.2 percent in February. Economists were looking for an increase of 2.8 percent. Weakness in overseas markets was also weighing on early trading. Shanghai's Composite fell 2.7 percent in Asia. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40, and UK's FTSE all lost more than 1 percent. Crude oil is getting noticed as prices fall $1.88 to $105.45 per barrel on reports some European officials are in talks with the US about tapping strategic reserves. Meanwhile, gold lost $23 to $1662 an ounce. Stocks were mostly lower as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 72 points and the NASDAQ gave up 15.

Bullish Trends

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) bucked the bearish trend and added 10 cents to $44.15 Wednesday. Options volume was picking up as well, with 16,000 calls and 2,570 puts traded on the pharmaceutical company today. The top trade was a 5,800-lot of January 45 calls traded at the $2.85 asking price. Shares were around $43.81 at the time. About two hours later, another 3,050-block of TEVA Jan 45 calls traded at the $3.05 asking price. At the end of the day, 10,550 contracts had changed hands against 6,345 in open interest. April 45 and January 47.5 calls on TEVA saw interest as well. The company announced today that it has launched a generic version of a schizophrenia drug produced by AstraZenaca. Some players might be buying January upside calls on hopes increasing revenues from the drug may lift the profits and share price of TEVA in the months ahead.

Bullish trading was also seen in Zoltek (ZOLT), Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT), and Forest Labs (FRX).

Bearish Trends

Chesapeake (CHK) shares lost 4.1 percent to 99 cents to $23.25 following a day of losses in the energy markets. Crude was down $1.80 to $105.53 per barrel, heating oil lost a penny to $3.22, and natural gas gave up 2.5 cents to $2.27.CHK, a leading natural gas producer, shares fell in active trading of 13.5 million shares. Meanwhile, 40,000 puts and 29,000 calls traded on the stock, which is 2.5X the daily average for the name. The top trade of the day was a 7,000-lot of April 23 puts for 76 cents per contract. One investor bought the block and also sold 5,000 April 24 puts at $1.30. The ratio spread is possibly a roll. That is, the investor might be closing out a position in April 24 puts, which are now 75 cents in-the-money after today's slide in the stock price, and opening a new position in out-of-the-money puts.

Bearish trading was also seen in Itau Unibanco Banco (ITUB), H&R Block (HRB), and EBIX.

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages are broadly higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to help the economy. Speaking to National Association of Business Economics Monday morning, the head of the Fed said the US needs to grow at a faster-rate to bring down levels of unemployment. "Further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies," according to Bernanke. Beyond that, it's been a relatively light news day. Trading was quiet overseas and Germany's DAX helped pace an advance across the Eurozone with a 1.2 percent gain. Crude oil prices are flat around $107 per barrel, but gold gained $24 to $1686.5 an ounce. On the economic calendar Monday, data showed Pending Home Sales falling .5 percent in February. Economists were looking for an uptick of .5 percent. The market showed little reaction to the poor number. Instead, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 113 points and the NASDAQ gained 36. CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) edged up .19 to 15.01. Overall options volume is light to start the week. 4.2 million calls and 3.2 million puts traded across all the exchanges through 11:15 Central Time.

Bullish Trends

Lion Gate Entertainment (LGF) hit a high of $15.4 per share after the movie studio's The Hunger Games was a big box office hit over the weekend. However, shares have come off their best levels and are now up 27 cents to $14.80. Meanwhile, options volume on the stock is running 3.5X the daily average. 32,000 calls and 13,000 puts traded on LGF so far. April 15 calls, which are now 20 cents out-of-the-money and expiring in 25 days, are the most actives. 4,480 traded. Similar action is being seen in the April 16 calls. About half of the volume these two contacts has traded on the bid, which indicates that some of the activity is possibly selling and perhaps closing trades. In addition, implied volatility is down 23.5 percent to 55 and also consistent with premium selling. Some investors possibly bought upside calls in anticipation of a strong movie debut and are now liquidating positions in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction to the weekend results.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) shares are up 98 cents to $37.60 and options on the Cambridge, MA Internet company are actively traded today. 6,690 calls and 710 puts traded on the stock so far. April 37 calls, which are now 60 cents in-the-money, are the most actives. 2,590 traded. April 38, 39 and 40 calls on the stock are busy as well. No headlines on the stock today, but levels of implied volatility in the options on AKAM jumped 20 percent to 30, suggesting that some investors are probably buying premium and expecting the rally in shares to continue in the weeks ahead. AKAM has already rallied 89 percent since September.

Bearish Trends

Electronic Arts (EA) is flat at $16.86 per share through midday Monday and options volume in the video game-maker is picking up today. 7,010 puts and 1,375 calls traded on the stock so far. The flow is heavily concentrated in the May 17 puts on the stock, which are now 14 cents in-the-money and expiring in 17 days. 6,290 traded against 2,062 in open interest. The top trade is a 1,763-contact block for $1.13 per contract on the ISE, which is an opening buyer, according to data from the exchange. Put buying in EA seems to be driving up levels of implied volatility up 4 percent to 34.5. There are no headlines on the stock to explain the bearish activity. Some investors might be buying puts to hedge stock after a period of relative weakness in EA. The stock is down more than 27 percent since October.

PowerShares Bullish Dollar Fund (UUP) is off 8 cents to $21.94 and has lost 2.1 percent since 3/14 following a recent rebound in the euro. UUP is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, but is heavily weighted towards the EUR/USD pair, which accounts for more than half of the fund's value. One player seems to be anticipating limited upside for UUP and, in morning action Monday, sold 25,000 September 22 puts on the ETF at 56 cents per contract. The position appears to be a new one (volume exceeds open interest) and to express the view that shares will hold below $22 through the September expiration. A shareholder of the fund might have initiated the trade as part of a covered call on UUP.

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages are holding near session highs heading into the final hour of trading Friday. Action was mixed with little news to guide investors through midday. New Home Sales were down to an annual rate of 313,000 in February. Economists were looking for an increase to 323,000 from 318,000. The market showed little reaction to the data. Trading overseas was mixed and offered little direction. Tokyo's Nikkei and Hong Kong Hang Seng both lost 1.1 percent, but stock market averages finished little changed throughout much of the Eurozone. The euro has added .5 percent to 1.3265 on the buck and crude oil prices rose $1.55 to $106.90. Gold is shining heading into the weekend. The yellow metal is up $23 to $1665 an ounce. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50 points and near its best levels of the day. With less than an hour remaining to trade, the NASDAQ has erased early losses and is up 5 points.

Bullish Trends

Cisco Systems (CSCO) adds 15 cents to $20.54 and is one of 19 Dow stocks holding gains heading down the home stretch of trading Friday. A noteworthy options trade on the networking giant Friday is a combination play, in which 8,000 June 19 puts traded on the stock at 45 cents and 8,000 Jun 22 calls for 34 cents per contract. Both blocks traded on the International Securities Exchange and data from the ISE is suggesting that puts were sold to buy calls and open a new position. If so, an 11-cent credit was collected for the bullish combo and the investor is probably a willing buyer of the stock for $19 per share, as they are writing $19 puts on the stock. However, they are also buying upside calls to participate if the stock moves higher rather than lower before the June expiration. This bullish risk-reversal on Cisco has traded 16000X Friday.

Bullish trading was also seen in Sandridge Energy (SD), Murphy Oil (MUR), and Walter Energy (WLT).

Bearish Trends

Polypore (POO), a Charlotte NC industrial equipment maker, is up $1.35 to $37 and options volume on the stock is 3X the daily average, being led by a put ratio backspread. In this trade, the investor apparently sold 2,500 June 35 puts on the stock at $3.20 and bought 5,000 September 22.5 puts for $1. The ratio backspread, which is also a diagonal spread for a $1.20 net credit, will offer its best payout if shares hold above $35 through the June expiration and then make a dramatic move lower by mid-September. The stock was trading for more than $74 in July 2011, but has been cut in half since that time on slowing demand for electric car batteries – one of the company's key products. The backspread seems to reflect concerns about additional losses in the months ahead.

Bearish trading was also seen in Cavium Networks (CAVM), KB Homes (KBH), and Range Resources (RRC).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages remain mixed in the final hour of trading Wednesday. It's been a quiet and slow news day thus far. The economic calendar included Existing Homes Sales, which slipped to an annual rate of 4.59 million in February from 4.63 million the month before. The number was in-line with economist estimates and seemed to have little market impact. And there's not much news emerging from overseas. Stock benchmarks finished little changed across the Eurozone and the euro is down less than .2 percent and holding around 1.32 on the dollar. Crude oil gained $1 to $107.07 and gold added $6 to $1651 an ounce.

Bullish Trends

General Electric (GE) closed up 13 cents to $20.20 and one of 17 Dow stocks moving higher on a day of mixed trading Wednesday. Options action in GE is interesting, as 124,000 calls and 31,000 puts traded on the stock, which is a ratio of four-to-one. Midday trades included a buyer of 12,600 May 22 calls on GE for 11 cents per contract on NYSE. A source at the exchange says an investor bought the block. Another 12,500 May 22 calls traded on the AMEX and 10,000 on ISE. Options are multiply listed today and can trade on any one of nine exchanges. All told, more than 45,000 May 22 calls have traded on General Electric across the different exchange, with buyers taking positions and apparently looking for the stock to rally beyond $22 through the May expiration; which represents a 9.2 percent advance over the next 58 days. The stock has performed well in the past two weeks and has already rallied 9 percent since March 6.

Bullish trading was also seen in Linkedin (LNKD), Lulumon Athletica (LULU), and JDS Uniphase (JDSU).

Bearish Trends

Chesapeake (CHK), a Oklahoma City, OK natural gas company, closed down 39 cents to finish $25.19 and options on the stock actively traded Wednesday. 29,000 puts and 9,780 calls traded today. More than half of the put volume was apparently due to one spread trade, in which the investor bought 5,000 April 25 puts on CHK for 87 cents and sold 10,000 April 23 puts at 28 cents. This 1X2 spread traded for 31 cents on the ISE, where data indicate 1 put was bought, 2 sold, and a new position is being opened. If so, the spread is a bearish play that offers its best payout if CHK falls to $23 at the April expiration, or roughly 9 percent drop in 30 days. The debit is at risk if shares stay above the higher strike and the position is held through the expiration. There is additional risk to the downside when opening put ratio spreads because not all of the lower strike puts, which are sold, are covered by the higher strike puts, which are bought.

Bearish trading was also seen in Live Nation (LYV), Assured Guaranty (AGO), and Community Health (CYH).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages opened lower following losses in overseas equity markets, but the decline was orderly and without much volatility Tuesday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.1 percent after some of the Australian miners like BHP indicated that iron ore prices are weakening. The news seems to have stoked concerns that China, the world's second largest economy, is slowing. European equity markets were also under pressure. Germany's DAX lost 1.4 percent to pace the decline in Europe on concerns the debt crisis is having an impact on economic growth in the region. The domestic economic news was light. A report released early showed Housing Starts falling to an annual rate of 698K in February, which below expectations of 707K. However, building permits – a better gauge of future activity – improved to 717K and 22,000 more than expected. Still, the Dow suffered a triple decline at the opened, but was down just 62 points at midday. From there, trading seemed somewhat aimless and lacking any real conviction. At the closing bell, the Dow was down 69 points. The tech-heavy NASDAQ lost 4.2 points.

Bullish Trends

Options on Delta Airlines (DAL) were actively traded Tuesday. Shares gained 22 cents to $9.53 and are on a two-day 3.5 percent run higher after losing 18.5 percent from February 3 to March 16. Some players seem to be anticipating additional gains for Delta shares, as 17,000 calls and 2,070 puts traded on the airliner today. June 10 calls, which are 4.9 percent out-of-the-money, were the most actives. 5,750 traded. However, April 10, May 9, and Jun 9 calls were busy as well and implied volatility rose 4 percent to 43.5. No news on the stock today. Shares were under pressure throughout much of February and into mid-March due partly to concerns about escalating jet fuel costs. However, crude oil prices slipped $2.29 to $106.27 per barrel on Tuesday.

Bullish trading was also seen in Tiffany (TIF), NetApp (NTAP), and Chico's FAS (CHS).

Bearish Trends

Barnes and Noble (BKS) added 4 cents to $14.32 Tuesday, but is down 32 percent from the highs seen in June of last year. One player in the options market seems to view the potential for a move higher in the stock through the rest of 2012. The investor sold 10,000 January 20 calls on the bookseller at $1.35 and bought 10,000 January 25 calls for 70 cents. The Jan 20 – 25 call spread, for a 65-cent credit, seems to express the view the stock won't potentially recapture $20 by January 19, 2013. It's possibly a liquidating trade, as open interest is sufficient to cover in both contracts.

Bearish trading was also seen in Brunswick (BC), Host Hotels (HST), and Keycorp (KEY).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Market averages have been rangebound on a light news Monday. The only economic stat released today was the NAHB Homebuilder's Sentiment Index, which was unchanged at 28 for March. Economists were expecting an increase to 31. There was little reaction to the data. Instead, stocks seemed to find some support from news that tech behemoth Apple Computer is increasing its dividend and buying back stock. A .5 percent gain in the euro, which is now at 1.324 against the dollar, seems to be getting noticed as well. However, longer-term Treasury bonds are under pressure and yields are rising. The yield on the ten-year is up to 2.4 percent from 1.95 percent two weeks ago. Crude oil prices, which could potentially drag on the economy as well, rose 92 cents to $108.50 per barrel. Yet, so far, the prospects of higher rates and energy prices have failed to derail the bulls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has added another 10 points. With fifteen minutes left to trade, the tech-heavy NASDAQ is up 25 points.

Bullish Trends

Options on American Eagle Mines (AEM) were actively traded Monday. Shares of the Toronto-based gold miner are off 56 cents to $33.23 and options volume is 4X the daily average. 42,000 calls and 1,500 puts traded on the stock so far. Most of the options activity was due to spread trading. For example, in morning action, one strategist sold 10,000 August 40 calls on AEM, bought 5,000 August 32.5 calls and bought 5,000 August 37.5 calls. Taken together, the three legs of the spread form an August 32.5 – 40 – 47.5 call butterfly spread. A $1.95 net debit was apparently paid to initiate the position and it traded more than once. Volume in the 40s, which represents the sweet spot of the spread, is more than 20,000. AEM is down more than 50% since August 2011 and the spread seems to be targeting a rebound (of about 20 percent) through mid-August 2012.

Bullish trading was also seen in BMC Software (BMC), Moody's (MCO), and Mosaic (MOS).

Bearish Trends

Options action picked up in BB&T (BBT) Monday. Shares of the Winston-Salem, NC regional bank are up 30 cents to $31.33 and notching new 52-week highs after rallying 10.7 percent in less than two weeks. BBT is now up nearly 50 percent from late-November lows. One investor might be looking to protect recent gains in shares, as a 9,000-contract block of April 31 puts traded on the bank for 75 cents per contract when the market was 71 to 76 cents. 10,360 now traded against just 297 contracts of open interest. Implied volatility in the options on the stock moved up 11.5 percent to 22.5, which is also consistent with put buying in BBT on Monday. Total volume is 13,000 puts and 8,000 calls, which is 4X the daily average for the name.

Bearish trading was also seen in Ralph Lauren (RL), Sunpower Tech (SPWR), and Key Bank (KEY).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed

MyRollingStocks Daily Update

Market Summary

Stock market averages moved higher with help from Retail Sales data early and the gains were extended after the FOMC released its latest post-meeting policy statement Tuesday afternoon. Data released early showed retail sales increasing 1.1 percent in February, which was .1 percent better-than-expected. Stock index futures had already ticked higher ahead of the report following gains in overseas equity markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng helped pace the advance in Asia with a 1 percent gain. France's CAC 40 gained 1.7 percent and Germany's DAX added 1.4 percent. Stock market averages moved higher in the US as well and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was sporting a triple-digit gain through midday. The tone of trading then took a wait and see feel ahead of at the Federal Reserve's announcement and trading was whippy after officials, as expected, left rates unchanged. Then a flurry of activity surfaced about 45 minutes later after JP Morgan (JPM) announced a dividend increase and hefty $15 billion share buyback. Shares jumped 7 percent and led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 218-point gain. The tech-heavy NASDAQ rallied 56.2 points.

Bullish Trends

Arch Coal (ACI) shares touched 52-week lows of $11.55 after a 65 percent drop since a year ago. However, the stock managed to rebound late in the day and finished up 16 cents to $11.76. Meanwhile, options volume on the coal producer was interesting. 15,000 calls and 3,860 puts traded on the stock Tuesday. The top trade was a 6,600-contract block of July 15 calls traded at the 33-cent asking price. At the end of the day, 10,313 traded. The contract is 30 percent out-of-the-money and therefore buying the contract seems like a very bullish view. But the stock fetched more than $15 a little more than one month ago and so today's apparent call buyers are possibly taking positions on the view the stock can, over the next four months, recover at least some of the hefty losses seen during the year.
Bullish trading was also seen in Rare Earth (REE), Office Depot (ODP), and Emulex (ELX).

Arch Coal (ACI) shares touched 52-week lows of $11.55 after a 65 percent drop since a year ago. However, the stock managed to rebound late in the day and finished up 16 cents to $11.76. Meanwhile, options volume on the coal producer was interesting. 15,000 calls and 3,860 puts traded on the stock Tuesday. The top trade was a 6,600-contract block of July 15 calls traded at the 33-cent asking price. At the end of the day, 10,313 traded. The contract is 30 percent out-of-the-money and therefore buying the contract seems like a very bullish view. But the stock fetched more than $15 a little more than one month ago and so today's apparent call buyers are possibly taking positions on the view the stock can, over the next four months, recover at least some of the hefty losses seen during the year.
Bullish trading was also seen in Rare Earth (REE), Office Depot (ODP), and Emulex (ELX).

Bearish Trends

A hefty trade surfaced in Bank of America (BAC) options late-Tuesday. Shares rallied 6.3 percent to $8.49 and were the second best gainers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind JP Morgan. In options action, one investor sold 40,000 March 7 puts on the bank to buy 40,000 March 9 calls. They also sold 40,000 April 10 calls on BofA and bought 40,000 April 7 puts. 4 cents was paid on the four-way and the spread probably rolls a bearish risk-reversal or collar out one month. A large shareholder might have initiated the spread to hedge a stock position and was today closing out March to open a new "collar" in April. The activity came ahead of highly anticipated stress test results for the banking industry. While Suntrust and Citi are trading lower in extended hours after failing the tests, BofA is ticking higher on the news.

Bearish trading was also seen in US Airways (LCC), Host Hotels (HST), and Norfolk Southern (NSC).

Posted in Macro Economic Trading | Comments closed